How well will the PS5 Pro sell?

From
the
reactions
we’ve
seen
to
the
PS5
Pro’s
$700
price
tag,
it
would
be
easy
to
think
Sony’s
new
console
is
dead
on
arrival.
But,
as
our
own
Chris
Dring

pointed
out
yesterday,
the
price
isn’t
the
biggest
issue
facing
the
new
hardware
launch,
and
for
all
the
uproar
over
the
expense,
there
is
still
a
market
for
PlayStation’s
high-end
device.

To
get
a
better
sense
of
the
PS5
Pro’s
prospects,

GamesIndustry.biz
spoke
to
a
number
of
analysts
about
their
sales
expectations
and
the
many
factors
that
affect
a
mid-generation
console’s
launch.

Ampere
Analysis’
games
research
director
Piers
Harding-Rolls
pointed
us
towards

his
forecast,
posted
shortly
after
the
PS5
Pro
was
announced,
in
which
he
suggests
1.3
million
units
could
be
sold
by
the
end
of
2024
–
slightly
behind
the
1.7
million
the
PS4
Pro
shifted
during
its
own
launch
window.

Conversely,
Sam
Naji,
founder
of
SJN
Insights,
tells
us
he
would
be
surprised
if
Sony
shifted
more
than
one
million
units
within
the
first
year.

There
are
also
comparisons
to
be
made
with
PS4
Pro,
which
sold
14.5
million
units
in
its
lifetime.
Ampere
expects
PS5
Pro
to
reach
13
million
by
2029,
a
similar
timeframe.

“Like
the
PS4
Pro,
we
don’t
expect
the
PS5
Pro
to
significantly
alter
the
sales
dynamics
of
the
PS5
platform
as
most
buyers
will
be
a
mixture
of
existing
PS5
owners
or
upgraders
from
PS4
that
have
switched
their
attention
to
the
Pro
model
instead
of
the
standard
PS5,”
Harding-Rolls
wrote.

“However,
Sony
will
be
hoping
that
these
power
users
will
spend
more
on
software
and
services
helping
its
overall
PlayStation
business.”

Rhys
Elliott,
games
industry
analyst
at
Midia
Research,
agrees
that
the
PS5
Pro
will
most
likely
perform
in
line
with
its
PS4
predecessor,
suggesting
it
could
shift
up
to
15
million
units
before
the
end
of
the
generation.

Meanwhile,
Kantan
Game
CEO
Dr
Serkan
Toto
observes
that
PS4
Pro
ended
up
accounting
for
a
little
over
10%
of
all
PS4s
sold
and
expects
the
PS5
Pro
to
“finish
below
that
but
still
be
roughly
in
the
same
ballpark.”

“What
many
people
do
not
completely
register
is
just
how
well
the
current
PS5
has
been
selling
and
that
over
50
million
is
a
very
impressive
install
base
given
the
lack
of
blockbuster
releases
this
generation
so
far,”
he
adds.

Looking
specifically
at
the
US,
a
major
market
for
any
platform
holder,
Circana’s
executive
director
for
video
games
Mat
Piscatella
predicts
up
to
20%
of
all
PS5s
sold
in
the
first
two
months
after
the
Pro
launches
will
be
the
high-end
model.

He
adds
that
the
PS4
Pro
accounted
for
13%
of
the
PS4’s
total
unit
sales
in
the
US,
and
15%
of
its
lifetime
dollar
sales.
He
expects
the
PS5
Pro
to
make
up
between
9%
and
15%
of
unit
sales,
and
slightly
higher
in
dollars
due
to
its
premium
price
point.

“PlayStation
is
similar
to
Apple
here
but
on
a
much
smaller
scale
–
it
almost
feels
like
a
lifestyle
brand,
and
there
are
fans
who
will
buy
almost
any
new
product
PlayStation
puts
out”

Rhys
Elliott,
Midia
Research

All
analysts
agree
there
is
an
audience
eager
to
pick
up
the
Pro,
albeit
primarily
composed
of
those
most
devoted
PlayStation
fans.
“In
that
sense,
it’s
like
a
Mercedes-AMG,
a
pimped
up
version
of
an
already
powerful
product
for
the
top
end
of
the
market,”
says
Toto.

Elliott
adds:
“PlayStation
is
similar
to
Apple
here
but
on
a
much
smaller
scale.
It
almost
feels
like
a
lifestyle
brand
–
and
there
are
PlayStation
fans
who
will
buy
almost
any
new
product
PlayStation
puts
out.
Like
with
Apple,
the
niche
VR
market
was
too
big
an
ask
for
PlayStation
5
diehards,
though.”

He
adds
that
today’s
consumers
are
already
prepared
to
pay
more
for
the
latest
electronics.
When
the
PS4
Pro
launched
for
$399
in
2016,
the
highest-end
iPhone
(iPhone
7
Plus)
cost
$769.
The
recently
announced
iPhone
16
Pro
Max
will
start
at
$1,199,
and
consumers
already
spend
hundreds
if
not
thousands
on
high-end
PC
GPUs.

Piscatella
notes
that
fans
were
already
spending
upwards
of
$1,000
on
marketplaces
like
StockX
to
secure
a
PS5
at
launch
in
2020,
and
that
Circana’s
Checkout
service
shows
PlayStation
already
attracts
the
most
high-income
household
purchasers
when
compared
to
the
other
consoles.
49%
of
people
who
bought
a
PS5
in
the
three
months
ending
July
31
2024
were
from
households
with
income
of
over
$100,000
per
year.
By
comparison,
only
43%
of
Xbox
buyers
and
40%
of
Switch
purchases
fell
in
the
same
category.

Harding-Rolls
adds
that
Sony’s
PlayStation
business
is
even
more
global
than
it
was
in
the
previous
generation,
increasing
the
chance
of
sales
in
other
markets.
“Eight
years
on
from
when
the
PS4
Pro
launched,
PS5
is
selling
strongly
in
countries
where
there
are
increasing
numbers
of
consumers
with
growing
disposable
income
such
as
mainland
China
and
Saudi
Arabia.
These
markets
represent
a
growing
opportunity
for
PlayStation
versus
the
PS4
generation.”

In
terms
of
the
price,
opinion
is
divided
on
whether
it
was
to
be
expected
–
Toto,
for
example,
has
predicted
$600
to
$650
–
but
all
agree
$700
is
the
“absolute
maximum,”
as
the
Kantan
CEO
puts
it,
that
Sony
could
have
asked
for.

“It’s
a
sweet
spot
that
highly
engaged
players
would
be
receptive
to,”
Elliott
explains.
“These
players
have
shown
time
and
time
again
that
they’re
willing
to
pay
an
extra
$200
to
complement
their
experience,
say
with
a
high-end
controller
or
PlayStation
Portal.
Anything
higher
than
$700
would
obviously
have
resulted
in
even
more
backlash.

“If
PlayStation
and
Xbox
could
turn
back
the
clock,
they’d
probably
have
priced
their
base
consoles
at
$600
at
launch.
$700
is
a
hefty
price
tag
into
today’s
macroeconomic
climate,
and
that’s
even
truer
for
the
price
point
in
the
UK,
but
PlayStation
superfans
will
still
buy
this
product.”

Harding-Rolls
offers
more
context
on
the
regional
disparities
when
it
comes
to
pricing;
while
the
Pro
represents
a
40%
premium
on
the
standard
disc-based
model
in
the
US
(let’s
not
forget
Pro
owners
need
to
buy
a
disc
drive
separately),
it’s
a
46%
in
the
UK,
45%
in
Europe
and
as
high
as
50%
in
Japan.

There’s
also
a
big
difference
when
compared
to
the
PS4
Pro,
which
was
33%
more
expensive
than
the
standard
model
when
it
launched.
The
PS5
Pro
is
50%
more
expensive
than
the
base.

“PS5
Pro
pricing
reflects
Sony’s
adjusted
strategy
to
protect
its
margin,
generally
supply
chain
inflation
and
a
lack
of
direct
competitor
to
its
mid-cycle
upgrade
compared
to
last
generation
(where
Microsoft
was
preparing
the
Xbox
One
X),”
Harding-Rolls
wrote.

“The
lack
of
competition
means
it
is
an
easier
decision
for
Sony
to
run
with
a
higher
price
point
to
protect
its
existing
margins.
For
most
prospective
PS5
consumers,
the
standard
edition
will
represent
the
value
sweet
spot.”

The
nearest
thing
the
PS5
Pro
has
to
a
competitor
is
Xbox’s
$600
2TB
disc-less
Series
X,
which
arrives
on
shelves
this
October.
Aside
from
the
larger
storage,
this
model
has
the
same
specifications
as
the
launch
model
of
the
Series
X;
both
Toto
and
Elliott
believe
the
Pro’s
$700
price
tag
doesn’t
seem
quite
so
outrageous
compared
to
this.

Piscatella
adds
that,
while
he
expected
and
understands
the
online
reaction,
it
reflects
changes
in
this
space
of
the
industry.

“The
reality
is
that
the
console
market
is
stratifying
in
many
ways,”
he
says.
“Look
at
games
with
$249
Collector’s
Editions,
or
games
that
feature
days
of
early
access
so
long
as
someone
is
willing
to
pay
a
$99.99+
price
point
for
that
game.
Or
premium
gamepads
and
headsets…
The
list
goes
on.

“Back
in
the
day,
everyone
played
on
the
same
console,
with
the
same
controller,
playing
the
same
games
at
the
same
time.
It’s
just
not
like
that
anymore.
Companies
are
trying
to
maximise
the
dollars
they
can
generate
from
both
price
sensitive
and
price
insensitive
consumers.
This
has
been
a
bit
of
a
painful
transition
for
many
console
fans.
I
get
it,
but
it’s
where
we’re
at,
and
this
trend
is
not
going
to
slow
anytime
soon.”

SJN
Insights’
Naji,
meanwhile,
observes
that
the
price
wasn’t
actually
mentioned
in
Mark
Cerny’s
presentation
of
the
PS5
Pro,
instead
only
revealed
by
a
flash
card
at
the
end
of
the
video.
“This
tells
me
Sony
is
fully
aware
of
how
charged
this
price
point
is
and
that
expectation
could
be
tempered.
Given
next
year
the
Switch
2
is
expected
to
drop
with
a
price
point
below
£400,
the
opportunity
cost
for
the
PS5
Pro
could
potentially
be
the
price
of
two
Switch
2
consoles.
Consumers
mentally
make
calculations
like
that
when
they
hear
£700.”

“The
console
market
is
stratifying
in
many
ways…
Back
in
the
day,
everyone
played
on
the
same
console,
with
the
same
controller,
playing
the
same
games
at
the
same
time.
It’s
just
not
like
that
anymore”

Mat
Piscatella,
Circana

Naji’s
comments
call
into
question
the
value
of
PS5
Pro
as
a
product.
While
the
PS4
Pro
had
an
easy
selling
point
–
support
for
the
4K
TVs
that
had
become
more
abundant
than
at
that
generation’s
launch
–
this
is
relying
on
more
incremental
tech
upgrades.
Instead
of
the
8K
support
the
Pro
offers,
Sony’s
focus
is
on
the
45%
faster
rendering,
advanced
ray-tracing
and
60fps
and
AI
upscaling.

“These
all
sound
very
impressive
on
paper
until
you
actually
see
the
difference
in
graphic
fidelity
over
the
current
PS5
console,”
says
Naji.
“The
image
is
at
best
marginally
sharper,
and
gameplay
is
marginally
smoother,
but
to
warrant
an
additional
67%
increase
in
price
over
the
PlayStation
Slim
is
a
huge
ask
for
the
majority
of
potential
console
purchasers,
especially
in
this
current
financial
climate.

“Even
when
adjusted
for
inflation,
£700
price
point
is
around
the
same
price
of
the
80GB
PS3
which
launched
in
2006
(£712
in
today’s
money)
and
that
console
has
gone
down
in
history
as
being
out
of
step
with
consumer
wallets.
What
is
worse
is
that
it
was
a
new
console
and
this
is
an
iteration
of
an
existing
console.”

Naji
acknowledges
that
there
is
always
“a
hefty
price
to
pay
for
top
of
the
range
technology
that
is
leaps
and
bounds
ahead
of
current
machines,”
but
the
current
demonstration
of
the
PS5
Pro
failed
to
convince
him
that
Sony
has
achieved
this.

“The
value
proposition
of
the
PS5
Pro
could
change
over
time
as
new
games
could
utilise
all
that
power
but
it
was
interesting
to
note
that
all
the
games
showcased
to
show
off
the
PS5
Pro
were
mostly
single-player
narrative
games,
something
Sony
has
largely
pivoted
away
from.”

Most
of
the
analysts
expect
the
PS5
Pro’s
appeal
will
be
enhanced
with
bundles
further
down
the
line
–
especially
if
Sony
can
arrange
a
bundle
with
next
year’s
Grand
Theft
Auto
6,
which
our
panel
believes
will
be
a
key
marketing
opportunity
for
the
Pro.

As
for
the
long-term
impact
this
console
has,
it’s
expected
that
the
model
will
simply
compliment
PlayStation’s
business
rather
than
significantly
boosting
it.

“There
is
a
market
for
it,
and
a
lot
of
the
people
complaining
online
simply
are
not
part
of
that
market,”
says
Elliott.
“We
expect
that
the
PS5
Pro
will
have
a
direct
positive
impact
on
hardware
sales
and
will
also
trickle
into
software
spending.
However,
the
impact
will
be
relatively
small
overall,
and
the
Pro
won’t
lead
to
much
user
acquisition
for
PlayStation.

Naji
concludes
that
the
console’s
mid-term
performance
will
depend
on
three
factors:
the
state
of
people’s
finances
and
the
macro
economy,
Sony’s
ability
to
demonstrate
the
Pro
significantly
improves
current
games,
and
whether
consumers
are
willing
to
buy
a
digital-only
console
or
fork
out
more
for
the
external
disc
drive.

As
for
the
console’s
long-term
prospects,
those
depend
upon
future
games.

“The
problem
is
developers
and
publishers
will
continue
to
build
games
for
the
maximum
audience
and
if
that
audience
play
on
the
standard
models
and
are
not
willing
to
pay
the
extra
premium
to
upgrade
to
the
Pro,
the
games
themselves
may
not
be
made
to
show
off
the
power
of
the
Pro,
leading
to
a
possible
Catch
22
scenario,”
Naji
explains.

“Lack
of
the
highest
fidelity
games
could
result
with
little
need
to
buy
the
Pro,
lack
of
demand
for
the
Pro
confirms
the
view
that
games
do
not
need
to
be
built
for
the
smaller
market
of
the
strongest
machines.
Only
time
will
tell.”